DAYTON DAILY NEWS                   Copyright (c) 1996, Dayton Newspapers Inc.DATE: Friday, March 22, 1996                 TAG: 9603220090EDITION: CITY           SECTION: NEWS        PAGE: 1A TYPE: ANALYSIS   SOURCE: By Kevin Lamb        DAYTON DAILY NEWS                      LOCAL MAY ENERGIZE LABOR NATIONWIDE    In the long run, the outcome of the Delphi Chassis strike could be less important than the walkout itself. By virtually shutting down General Motors for two weeks, experts say United Auto Workers Local 696 could help energize aweakened national labor movement.   "It is a rallying point, a union victory in light of not so many lately," said David Meyer, a University of Akron management professor. "It can be used as an example that unions are not completely moribund and dangerous."   Union membership is down to 11 percent of the private sector, 15 percent overall. The weapon of strikes has been loaded with blanks, and Congress is antagonistic, experts said. "And it could get worse," said Cheryl Maranto, an industrial relations professor at Marquette University.   If organized labor is going to revive, the experts agree this is the year it must wake up and start stretching . Now is when the downsized middle class is looking for protections that unions once provided. Labor scholars see signsthat such a resurgence could be starting, although none suggest it will happenquickly.   "Lightning and thunder isn't going to strike. It's a process," said Tony Mazzocchi, organizer of the new Labor Party Advocates.   Mazzocchi's party, which pushes issues instead of candidates, is one sign. So was Pat Buchanan's strength in the Republican primaries. His corporate criticism went over so well that even Bob Dole started bashing business , which was no more expected than Bill Gates preaching the evils of personal computers . The AFL-CIO has new leadership, too, which promises to make unionsmore responsive to a work force that has stopped looking their way for help.   Ultimately, no matter how the UAW fared in Dayton, Maranto said the future of unions depends on revising laws that she called "a joke in terms of protecting employees."   But that can only come later. "It won't happen until public opinion changes," she said. "And I don't know how bad it's going to have to get for public opinion to change. Maybe if we have a real serious recession or depression."   Still, some feel that management will always have the upper hand.   "If you're going to be a force, you've got to be able to demonstrate to people the union's going to do something for you that can't be done otherwise," said Ray Hilgert, an arbitrator and a professor at Washington University in St. Louis.   Others, such as Hoyt Wheeler, a University of South Carolina labor relations professor and president of the Industrial Relations Research Association, say conditions exist for bringing back organized labor after decades of decline.   Working people in blue collars and gray suits alike have been worn down - sometimes devastated - by corporate layoffs, he said. They are frustrated by working more and more hours to have less and less money for fun stuff. They are afraid of having their jobs shipped out of town or lopped off the payroll.   "But the same conditions that make it favorable for union organizers also make it more difficult to do it," Wheeler said.   That's because the main reason people are afraid to join unions is fear of losing their jobs, according to a University of Wisconsin study.   Strikes aren't as effective anymore, either. The UAW ended a 17-month strike against Caterpillar in December and didn't get a contract. And workers are afraid that if they strike they'll be replaced, as has happened in a strike against to some degree at two Detroit newspapers.   "There's not the respect for picket lines there used to be," said Jim McBrearty, a labor-relations professor at the University of Arizona. "People making $5 an hour will do anything for $15 an hour."   Barely a generation ago, there was so much sympathy for labor that few companies didn't dare risk bad publicity by replacing strikers, the experts said. That support shifted during the 1970s, when more people began blaming fat union contracts for rising prices and for forcing companies to shut down.   Then in  1981, President Ronald Reagan fired 11,400 striking air traffic controllers.   "That was basically a declaration by the United States of no-holds-barred,"said David Larson, a law professor at Creighton University. "Throw them out. If you don't want them there, do whatever you can to get them out."   In order to regain their strength, "Unions have to reinvent themselves," Maranto said. "They're working on it."   Even though the strike has become less effective, unions still can be the tool that stirs up public opinion and pressures legislators to effect labor laws, Maranto said.   Mazzocchi formed Labor Party Advocates with that in mind.   Besides allowing replacement workers, Maranto said the law hampers organizers by forbidding them to leaflet in public parking lots, among other things. And Congress cut the National Labor Relations Board's budget by 30 percent last year.   The AFL-CIO elected John Sweeney as president last in October in the first contested election in its history. Executive vice president Linda Chavez-Thompson became its first female officer.   Individual unions are beginning to cooperate strategically and pool resources for membership recruitment and strike funds. Union leaders from 14 countries gathered at Bridge-stone/Firestone last week to support the United Steel Workers. From the umbrella AFL-CIO, Sweeney has earmarked $20 million for membership drives.   "They're having their 'America needs a raise' campaign this summer," Maranto said. "Those are some of the things unions need to do to put the fightback in people. To show them that maybe if we do things together, we can get somewhere." LENGTH: Long  :  111 LINESILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: A deal: Striking union workers, joined by supporters from          Kalamazoo,  Mich., celebrate the tentative agreement Thursday.          PHOTO CREDIT: JAN UNDERWOOD/DAYTON DAILY NEWS SUBJ: STRIKE      SETTLEMENT NA: DELPHI CHASSIS    UAW    GENERAL MOTORS CORP. GEOG: DAYTON ENHANCER: REF8